All courses🧠 Psychology · Level 3.3
🎓 Performance Psychology
Expectancy, the probability mindset, and the hidden self-sabotage that ruins good traders. This is where trading becomes a performance discipline.
3 lessons ~15 min read
010203
Expectancy — thinking in edge, not wins
Calculate expectancy in R and interpret what it says about an edge Recognise the high-win-rate losing profile and why it stays invisible Measure actual average loss from the journal rather than from the intended stop Split expectancy by adherence to separate the system from the habit
The probability mindset
Calculate the expected worst losing streak before encountering it Explain why recovery is asymmetric and why size determines survival Diagnose deterioration in order: variance, adherence, then regime Review weekly in R rather than continuously in currency
Self-sabotage — the hidden enemy
Identify the five ways traders undermine an already working system Use a dated change queue instead of improving a system continuously Fix risk percentage between scheduled reviews to prevent size drift Treat the routine and journal as diagnostic instruments, not training aids
Final challenge
Answer all 12 questions. You need 10 of 12 correct to unlock the certificate — 2 can be wrong. Retakes are unlimited, so take your time.